Why It’s Normal That Iron Dome Doesn’t Intercept Every Iranian Missile

by Andrea Molle in the United States

In recent days, amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, some superficial observers have rushed to question the effectiveness of Israel’s missile defense systems—particularly Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow. The fact that a few Iranian missiles managed to strike Israeli territory has been interpreted by some as a sign of technical or strategic failure. But the truth is far more complex—and far more rational.

1. Missile defense systems aren’t magical shields
Every missile defense system operates based on probabilities and prioritization. No technology in the world can guarantee 100% interception. Even the most advanced systems work under conditions of uncertainty and are constrained by the laws of statistics, physics, logistics, and electronic warfare.

2. Interceptor stockpiles are limited
Each battery has a finite number of interceptor missiles. Firing one can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. When faced with a saturation attack—i.e., dozens or hundreds of missiles launched simultaneously—Israeli commanders must prioritize: defending critical targets while allowing less dangerous missiles to hit uninhabited or low-value areas.

3. Launcher rotation and operational wear
Systems like Iron Dome are regularly rotated and repositioned to avoid depletion, targeted strikes, or overconcentration in one area. This means that at any given moment, some zones might not be fully covered—not due to error, but by design.

4. Time and surprise are factors
Some Iranian missiles are long-range and launched from afar, but others can be fired by closer proxies like Hezbollah. The diversity of threats, combined with the potential for simultaneous attacks from the north, east, and south, makes complete and instantaneous coverage impossible.

5. Layered defense works—but has limits
Israel has built a multi-tiered defense system (Iron Dome for short-range rockets, David’s Sling for medium-range threats, and Arrow for ballistic missiles). However, each system has an optimal engagement angle and range, and a coordinated multi-front assault can stress the system’s efficiency.

In short: this isn’t a failure—it’s exactly how modern warfare works. The effectiveness of a defense system isn’t measured by achieving zero successful enemy hits, but by the ratio of damage prevented versus damage sustained. And so far, the data shows that Israel’s network, while under intense pressure, is holding up.